This paper proposes a new methodology to estimate a share's equity duration by using analysts'cash-flow forecasts.
College, University of LondonResearch Associate, EDHEC-Risk Institute
Swisscanto Asset Management AG
We find that short duration is associated with high expected and realized returns — which cannot be attributed to the shares' systematic risk exposure as implied by the market beta. Instead, we show that this measure of a company's average cash-flow maturity is a priced risk factor that has similar properties as the Fama-French factor B/M ratio. Our analysis suggests that the value premium might be a compensation for the value firms' higher exposure to cash-flow risk.
|Research Cluster :||Finance|