4 SCENARIOS FOR THE BUILDING SECTOR IN 2040
The building sector today suffers from fragmentation, complex regulation, low productivity growth, poor procurement and supply-chain management, and contractual frameworks that hinder collaboration across the value chain. At the same time, it faces big challenges, like reducing its carbon emissions, digitalisation and the difficulty to attract skilled workforces.
So is there hope? We believe, yes. There are many change drivers that may still create a perfect storm and revolutionize the industry. Let’s fastforward and explore 4 scenarios of how the building sector will change in 20 years time.
Imagine yourself in the year 2040.
SCENARIO 1: GIANTS RULE THE AEC INDUSTRY
- An increasing digitalisation of life has changed the way we interact with buildings
- Highly-efficient and fully digitalised typologies enable meeting the sustainability targets in Europe
- An overall open-data approach has changed the whole construction industry
- Business opportunities keep emerging for Big Tech and OEM companies in the built environment
SCENARIO 2: CIRCULAR FUTURE
- 25 years after first steps, Europe has matured in circular construction
- This was achieved through joint effort of policy makers, industry and consumers
- Environmental and social responsibility go hand in hand with economic growth
- New business opportunities emerge across the full value chain
SCENARIO 3: PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERSHIP
- Europe failed to meet the climate targets
- Public governments take more control and actively regulate the AEC industry to meet new climate targets
- The private sector suffers from business uncertainty, but still benefits from big-size developments
- The building sector is highly constrained and cannot unlock its full potential
SCENARIO 4: ABUNDANT GREEN ENERGY
- Innovation made green energy abundantly available in Europe
- The smart grid extends to vehicles, IoT; households become prosumers of electricitys
- As energy related emissions become less important embodied carbon dominates the agenda
- Refurbishment waves in Europe push the revamp of the existing building stock
Four scenarios: giants rule the AEC industry, circular future, public sector leadership and abundant green energy. Scenarios that represent consistent and plausible futures for your organization and the industry as a whole. They help to examine a different future, understand alternatives and inform strategy. Some of them are describing more sustainable futures than others. We hope that they will spur innovation, facilitate collaboration and provide guidance towards a more sustainable future for the building sector. Get in touch with the Future of Buildings project team if you want to learn about infusing your strategy and innovation work with the insights of these scenarios.