The Impact of Unemployment on Homeownership in England

Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other.

Author(s):

Stephane Gregoir

Director of the EDHEC Economics Research Centre, EDHEC Business SchoolResearch Director, EDHEC Business School

Tristan-Pierre Maury

Deputy Research Director,Accounting, Law, Finance and Economics Department, EDHEC Business Schoo

The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices.
Pdf
The Impact of Unemployment on Homeownership in England...
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Type: Position paper
Date: le 24/06/2011
Extra information : For more information, please contact Joanne Finlay, EDHEC Research and Development Department [ joanne.finlay@edhec.edu ] The contents of this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions of EDHEC Business School.
Research Cluster : Economics

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The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector.
The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices.

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As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. 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"e3d9ba5e-78a3-4c7d-8177-7d35737f80f3" ["nid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["type"]=> string(11) "publication" ["language"]=> string(3) "und" ["created"]=> string(10) "1474027664" ["changed"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["tnid"]=> string(1) "0" ["translate"]=> string(1) "0" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "43cbb57f-50a1-43b1-a530-0e326c852aaa" ["revision_timestamp"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["revision_uid"]=> string(1) "1" ["body"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. 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["vocabulary_machine_name"]=> string(7) "fichier" ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(5) { ["rdftype"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(12) "skos:Concept" } ["name"]=> array(1) { ["predicates"]=> array(2) { [0]=> string(10) "rdfs:label" [1]=> string(14) "skos:prefLabel" } } ["description"]=> array(1) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(15) "skos:definition" } } ["vid"]=> array(2) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(13) "skos:inScheme" } ["type"]=> string(3) "rel" } ["parent"]=> array(2) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(12) "skos:broader" } ["type"]=> string(3) "rel" } } ["path"]=> array(1) { ["pathauto"]=> string(1) "1" } } } } } ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(0) { } ["entity_view_prepared"]=> bool(true) } ["#items"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(13) { ["fid"]=> string(5) "11146" ["uid"]=> string(1) "0" ["filename"]=> string(72) "com.univ.collaboratif.utils.LectureFichiergw?ID_FICHIER=1328885974096jpg" ["uri"]=> string(98) 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["type"]=> string(7) "default" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "a37038b6-4332-4f0a-a33f-154357a9cf54" ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(0) { } ["display"]=> string(1) "1" ["description"]=> NULL } } } ["field_type_de_fichier"]=> array(16) { ["#theme"]=> string(5) "field" ["#weight"]=> string(1) "0" ["#title"]=> string(15) "Type de fichier" ["#access"]=> bool(true) ["#label_display"]=> string(6) "hidden" ["#view_mode"]=> string(4) "full" ["#language"]=> string(3) "und" ["#field_name"]=> string(21) "field_type_de_fichier" ["#field_type"]=> string(23) "taxonomy_term_reference" ["#field_translatable"]=> string(1) "0" ["#entity_type"]=> string(21) "field_collection_item" ["#bundle"]=> string(15) "field_documents" ["#object"]=> object(FieldCollectionItemEntity)#281 (24) { ["fieldInfo":protected]=> NULL ["hostEntity":protected]=> object(stdClass)#216 (39) { ["vid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["uid"]=> string(1) "0" ["title"]=> string(54) "The Impact of Unemployment on Homeownership in England" ["log"]=> string(0) "" ["status"]=> string(1) "1" ["comment"]=> string(1) "0" ["promote"]=> string(1) "0" ["sticky"]=> string(1) "0" ["vuuid"]=> string(36) "e3d9ba5e-78a3-4c7d-8177-7d35737f80f3" ["nid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["type"]=> string(11) "publication" ["language"]=> string(3) "und" ["created"]=> string(10) "1474027664" ["changed"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["tnid"]=> string(1) "0" ["translate"]=> string(1) "0" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "43cbb57f-50a1-43b1-a530-0e326c852aaa" ["revision_timestamp"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["revision_uid"]=> string(1) "1" ["body"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." ["format"]=> NULL } } } ["field_type_publication"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(1) { ["tid"]=> string(2) "55" } } } ["field_pole_recherche"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(1) { ["tid"]=> string(2) "73" } } } ["field_date"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(5) { ["value"]=> string(19) "2011-06-24 00:00:00" ["value2"]=> NULL ["timezone"]=> string(12) "Europe/Paris" ["timezone_db"]=> string(12) "Europe/Paris" ["date_type"]=> string(8) "datetime" } } } ["field_image_publication"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(15) { ["fid"]=> string(5) "11145" ["uid"]=> string(1) "0" ["filename"]=> string(87) "com.univ.collaboratif.utils.LectureFichiergw?ID_FICHIER=1308896562573&ID_FICHE=5942" ["uri"]=> string(116) "public://publications/images/com.univ.collaboratif.utils.LectureFichiergw?ID_FICHIER=1308896562573&ID_FICHE=5942" ["filemime"]=> string(24) "application/octet-stream" ["filesize"]=> string(4) "6671" ["status"]=> string(1) "1" ["timestamp"]=> string(10) "1474027652" ["type"]=> string(7) "default" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "fdf2eb24-0ad2-4bae-adbf-ff42d1a895cb" ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(0) { } ["alt"]=> NULL ["title"]=> NULL ["width"]=> string(3) "185" ["height"]=> string(3) "262" } } } ["field_documents"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(2) { [0]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(4) "8640" ["revision_id"]=> string(4) "8640" } [1]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> NULL ["revision_id"]=> NULL } } } ["field_lien"]=> array(0) { } ["field_complement_d_information"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(218) "For more information, please contact Joanne Finlay, EDHEC Research and Development Department [ joanne.finlay@edhec.edu ] The contents of this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions of EDHEC Business School." 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["callback"]=> string(12) "date_iso8601" } ["body"]=> array(1) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(15) "content:encoded" } } ["uid"]=> array(2) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(16) "sioc:has_creator" } ["type"]=> string(3) "rel" } ["name"]=> array(1) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(9) "foaf:name" } } ["comment_count"]=> array(2) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(16) "sioc:num_replies" } ["datatype"]=> string(11) "xsd:integer" } ["last_activity"]=> array(3) { ["predicates"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(23) "sioc:last_activity_date" } ["datatype"]=> string(12) "xsd:dateTime" ["callback"]=> string(12) "date_iso8601" } } ["name"]=> string(0) "" ["picture"]=> string(1) "0" ["data"]=> NULL ["print_html_display"]=> int(1) ["print_html_display_comment"]=> int(0) ["print_html_display_urllist"]=> int(1) ["entity_view_prepared"]=> bool(true) } ["hostEntityId":protected]=> int(10376) ["hostEntityRevisionId":protected]=> bool(false) ["hostEntityType":protected]=> 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["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. 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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. 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For more information, please contact Joanne Finlay, EDHEC Research and Development Department [ joanne.finlay@edhec.edu ]

The contents of this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions of EDHEC Business School.

" } } ["field_publication_auteur"]=> array(21) { ["#theme"]=> string(5) "field" ["#weight"]=> string(1) "6" ["#title"]=> string(9) "Author(s)" ["#access"]=> bool(true) ["#label_display"]=> string(5) "above" ["#view_mode"]=> string(4) "full" ["#language"]=> string(3) "und" ["#field_name"]=> string(24) "field_publication_auteur" ["#field_type"]=> string(16) "field_collection" ["#field_translatable"]=> string(1) "0" ["#entity_type"]=> string(4) "node" ["#bundle"]=> string(11) "publication" ["#object"]=> object(stdClass)#216 (39) { ["vid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["uid"]=> string(1) "0" ["title"]=> string(54) "The Impact of Unemployment on Homeownership in England" ["log"]=> string(0) "" ["status"]=> string(1) "1" ["comment"]=> string(1) "0" ["promote"]=> string(1) "0" ["sticky"]=> string(1) "0" ["vuuid"]=> string(36) "e3d9ba5e-78a3-4c7d-8177-7d35737f80f3" ["nid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["type"]=> string(11) "publication" ["language"]=> string(3) "und" ["created"]=> string(10) "1474027664" ["changed"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["tnid"]=> string(1) "0" ["translate"]=> string(1) "0" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "43cbb57f-50a1-43b1-a530-0e326c852aaa" ["revision_timestamp"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["revision_uid"]=> string(1) "1" ["body"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. 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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Tristan-Pierre Maury, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and researcher at the EDHEC Economics Research Centre. He received a doctoral degree in macroeconomic policies and endogenous growth mode from Université de Paris X, in 2001. His research is in the field of real estate, econometrics (hedonic indices, spatial analysis) and education. He has published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economics Letters, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Health Economics and elsewhere.

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Tristan-Pierre Maury, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and researcher at the EDHEC Economics Research Centre. He received a doctoral degree in macroeconomic policies and endogenous growth mode from Université de Paris X, in 2001. His research is in the field of real estate, econometrics (hedonic indices, spatial analysis) and education. He has published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economics Letters, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Health Economics and elsewhere.

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Economics, Real Estate, Education

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Tristan-Pierre Maury, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and researcher at the EDHEC Economics Research Centre. He received a doctoral degree in macroeconomic policies and endogenous growth mode from Université de Paris X, in 2001. His research is in the field of real estate, econometrics (hedonic indices, spatial analysis) and education. He has published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economics Letters, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Health Economics and elsewhere.

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Tristan-Pierre Maury, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and researcher at the EDHEC Economics Research Centre. He received a doctoral degree in macroeconomic policies and endogenous growth mode from Université de Paris X, in 2001. His research is in the field of real estate, econometrics (hedonic indices, spatial analysis) and education. He has published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economics Letters, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Health Economics and elsewhere.

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Economics, Real Estate, Education

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Economics, Real Estate, Education

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Région et Développement (2015), Journal of Housing Economics (2014 ; 2016), Health Economics (2013), Annales d'Economie et de Statistiques (2012), Journal of Regional Science (2011), Real Estate Economics (2009), Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine (2007), Journal of Property Research (2007), Economics Letters (2004 , 2006), Revue d'Economie Politique (2006), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2004), Economic Modelling (2004)

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Tristan-Pierre Maury, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and researcher at the EDHEC Economics Research Centre. He received a doctoral degree in macroeconomic policies and endogenous growth mode from Université de Paris X, in 2001. His research is in the field of real estate, econometrics (hedonic indices, spatial analysis) and education. He has published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economics Letters, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Health Economics and elsewhere.

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Tristan-Pierre Maury, PhD, is Associate Professor of Economics and researcher at the EDHEC Economics Research Centre. He received a doctoral degree in macroeconomic policies and endogenous growth mode from Université de Paris X, in 2001. His research is in the field of real estate, econometrics (hedonic indices, spatial analysis) and education. He has published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Economics Letters, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Health Economics and elsewhere.

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Economics, Real Estate, Education

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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Associate Professor, Member of the Economics research Centre

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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector.
The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices.

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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. 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"e3d9ba5e-78a3-4c7d-8177-7d35737f80f3" ["nid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["type"]=> string(11) "publication" ["language"]=> string(3) "und" ["created"]=> string(10) "1474027664" ["changed"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["tnid"]=> string(1) "0" ["translate"]=> string(1) "0" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "43cbb57f-50a1-43b1-a530-0e326c852aaa" ["revision_timestamp"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["revision_uid"]=> string(1) "1" ["body"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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["status"]=> string(1) "1" ["comment"]=> string(1) "0" ["promote"]=> string(1) "0" ["sticky"]=> string(1) "0" ["vuuid"]=> string(36) "e3d9ba5e-78a3-4c7d-8177-7d35737f80f3" ["nid"]=> string(5) "10376" ["type"]=> string(11) "publication" ["language"]=> string(3) "und" ["created"]=> string(10) "1474027664" ["changed"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["tnid"]=> string(1) "0" ["translate"]=> string(1) "0" ["uuid"]=> string(36) "43cbb57f-50a1-43b1-a530-0e326c852aaa" ["revision_timestamp"]=> string(10) "1480342519" ["revision_uid"]=> string(1) "1" ["body"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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["value"]=> string(2182) " The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. As in much of the literature, we find that the probability of being employed one year later is lower for unemployed renters than for unemployed owner-occupiers. We also find evidence that social renters (and especially those with 100% rent rebates) experience the longest spells of unemployment. Similarly, tenants in the social housing sector have lower transition rates to homeownership than private renters, regardless of their labour market position, even after differences in the socio-demographic backgrounds of the two groups are corrected for. Finally, combining these empirical results, we illustrate the consequences of a labour market shock on the housing sector. We simulate a counterfactual sudden increase of one percentage point in the English unemployment rate in 2005 (i.e., around 250,000 more unemployed) and keep housing prices unchanged: this simulation leads to a substantial fall of about 30,000 owner-occupiers two years later. This result suggests that the changes in the labour market have an important and lasting impact on future home tenure choices. " ["summary"]=> string(213) "Stéphane Gregoir, Tristan-Pierre Maury : The labour and housing markets are closely bound up with each other. For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other." 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For any household, a position taken on one of these markets affects the decisions taken in the other: home tenure (homeowner, private or social renter), for example, affects the likelihood of finding a job through differences in residential mobility; and the labour market position (employed, unemployed, out of the labour force) partly conditions access to mortgages or to the social housing sector. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is at a seventeen-year high, and housing prices have been falling for the past two years. Analysing possible market movements in the coming years requires an understanding of the most significant mechanisms involved and a quantitative assessment of their magnitude. For English households, we use an original setup to study, from a descriptive point of view, the joint dynamics of these two positions: we model simultaneously at household level positions in the labour market and housing tenure as well as changes in wages and housing costs. 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For more information, please contact Joanne Finlay, EDHEC Research and Development Department [ joanne.finlay@edhec.edu ]

The contents of this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions of EDHEC Business School.

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string(28) "administer field collections" } } ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(0) { } } ["field_publication_auteur"]=> array(3) { ["label"]=> string(41) "Field collection field_publication_auteur" ["admin"]=> array(4) { ["path"]=> string(62) "admin/structure/field-collections/%field_collection_field_name" ["real path"]=> string(58) "admin/structure/field-collections/field-publication-auteur" ["bundle argument"]=> int(3) ["access arguments"]=> array(1) { [0]=> string(28) "administer field collections" } } ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(0) { } } } ["static cache"]=> bool(true) ["field cache"]=> bool(true) ["load hook"]=> string(26) "field_collection_item_load" ["translation"]=> array(0) { } ["base table field types"]=> array(5) { ["item_id"]=> string(6) "serial" ["revision_id"]=> string(3) "int" ["field_name"]=> string(7) "varchar" ["archived"]=> string(3) "int" ["uuid"]=> string(4) "char" } ["schema_fields_sql"]=> array(2) { ["base table"]=> array(5) { [0]=> string(7) "item_id" [1]=> string(11) "revision_id" [2]=> string(10) "field_name" [3]=> string(8) "archived" [4]=> string(4) "uuid" } ["revision table"]=> array(2) { [0]=> string(11) "revision_id" [1]=> string(7) "item_id" } } ["token type"]=> string(21) "field_collection_item" ["configuration"]=> bool(false) ["uuid"]=> bool(true) } ["idKey":protected]=> string(7) "item_id" ["nameKey":protected]=> string(7) "item_id" ["statusKey":protected]=> string(6) "status" ["defaultLabel":protected]=> bool(false) ["wrapper":protected]=> NULL ["uuid"]=> string(36) "2248ae0f-f621-42ee-825c-ae271f1f8fa9" ["field_nom"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(16) "Stephane Gregoir" ["format"]=> NULL ["safe_value"]=> string(16) "Stephane Gregoir" } } } ["field_professeur_edhec"]=> array(0) { } ["field_fonction"]=> array(1) { ["und"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(110) "Director of the EDHEC Economics Research Centre, EDHEC Business SchoolResearch Director, EDHEC Business School" ["format"]=> NULL ["safe_value"]=> string(110) "Director of the EDHEC Economics Research Centre, EDHEC Business SchoolResearch Director, EDHEC Business School" } } } ["rdf_mapping"]=> array(0) { } ["entity_view_prepared"]=> bool(true) } ["#items"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(3) { ["value"]=> string(110) "Director of the EDHEC Economics Research Centre, EDHEC Business SchoolResearch Director, EDHEC Business School" ["format"]=> NULL ["safe_value"]=> string(110) "Director of the EDHEC Economics Research Centre, EDHEC Business SchoolResearch Director, EDHEC Business School" } } ["#formatter"]=> string(12) "text_default" [0]=> array(1) { ["#markup"]=> string(110) "Director of the EDHEC Economics Research Centre, EDHEC Business SchoolResearch Director, EDHEC Business School" }